Black swans and what to look out for in 2019
In December, Tell Media Group, in co-operation with Allianz Global Investors, Aviva Investors and HSBC Global Asset Management, invited three CIOs from Swedish asset owners to discuss the outlook for 2019 and asset allocation challenges. Caroline Liinanki, editor of Nordic Fund Selection Journal, and Niklas Tell, founder of Tell Media Group, moderated the roundtable.
The discussion, which was held at Nobis Hotel in central Stockholm, started with the participants sharing their thoughts on which asset class that had been the biggest disappointment over the past year.
Lars-Göran Orrevall, chief investment officer of Skandia said that the biggest disappointment is something that’s not in their portfolio: hedge funds. “Hedge funds really should shine in the environment we had in October and November and they didn’t – at least not as a group. We’ve decided not to invest in hedge funds and the main reason is that they’re too expensive. We’ve had some historically but then it was a specific strategy or a specific fund that we wanted to have in the portfolio. I don’t see why we should have a broad allocation to a wide group of hedge funds,” he said.
NIKLAS TELL: “Is there anything that you do have in your portfolio that disappointed or has been less good than expected?”
“Not really. We have a lot of non-Swedish assets in our portfolio and the Swedish krona has been very weak so in some ways that has saved us. The performance in Swedish krona has been good, even if it hasn’t been excellent in local currency,” Lars-Göran Orrevall said.
Marie Giertz, chief investment officer of Kåpan Pensioner, said: “We have a very traditional portfolio and even if we were somewhat prepared, the biggest disappointment has still been on the equity side. We’ve also been disappointed by the performance of the Swedish krona. As you said Lars-Göran, the krona should be weak when we have a crisis but now we have had a weak Swedish krona at a time of good global growth and a strong Swedish export sector. If FX is an asset class, then the Swedish krona has been the most disappointing.”
Participants
- MARIE GIERTZ, Chief investment officer, Kåpan Pensioner
- ERIK CALLERT, Group chief investment officer, Nordea Life & Pensions
- LARS-GÖRAN ORREVALL, Chief investment officer, Skandia
- ANDRIES HOEKEMA, Global head of insurance segment, HSBC Global AM
- STEFAN HOFRICHTER, Global economist and head of economics & strategy
- team, Allianz Global Investors
- MICHAEL GRADY, Head of investment strategy and chief economist,
- Aviva Investors
The roundtable discussion was published in issue 01, 2019 of Nordic Fund Selection Journal and a PDF of the story can be found here.
